Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf811c2c633cad8631de3085bf8b137bcbe69737fa32e1da43fd15aa423925ec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 432.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 366.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 257.41$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 215.27$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 7c | 196.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 18c | 181.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 18c | 110.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 88.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 83.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…2e8fbacked Yes | 20c | 68.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 74c | 63.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 62.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 27c | 59.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked Yes | 27c | 45.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 73c | 35.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 79c | 29.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 73c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…19c4backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.