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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,970 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f98…e397backed Yes19c432.04$83 inWon+$348.8837652.4%197 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No18c276.43$49 inLost-$48.5648226.6%128 W · 354 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf66…3436backed Yes32c262.17$85 inWon+$177.172646.2%12 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+89%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes13c224.37$30 inWon+$194.3767138.9%261 W · 410 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes14c126.33$18 inWon+$108.3255942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes50c108$54 inWon+$53.574,03235.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L+42.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No70c100$70 inLost-$7098952.3%517 W · 472 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No70c100$70 inLost-$7052347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No58c96.46$56 inLost-$55.911,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes57c73.61$42 inWon+$31.9257654.3%313 W · 263 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c73.5$17 inLost-$17.146,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x033e…76aebacked Yes70c70.25$49 inWon+$20.894766%31 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No76c65.55$50 inLost-$49.73,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c65.1$38 inLost-$37.6312,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes24c60$14 inWon+$45.5878627.1%213 W · 573 L-1.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No35c60$21 inLost-$20.813861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2da9…0a3cbacked Yes25c60$15 inWon+$45616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c56.39$29 inLost-$29.1312,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No23c54.84$13 inLost-$12.581,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c51.68$40 inLost-$40.025,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa164…1405backed Yes63c42.06$27 inWon+$15.377341.1%30 W · 43 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea25…0447backed Yes30c38.45$11 inWon+$26.9814839.9%59 W · 89 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c30$24 inLost-$242,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No70c25$18 inLost-$17.552743.6%230 W · 297 L+31.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed No78c25$20 inLost-$19.519750.8%100 W · 97 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b08…ab3ebacked No59c21.23$12 inLost-$12.4712348.8%60 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c1…ac39backed Yes60c20.83$13 inWon+$8.321435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes60c17.8$11 inWon+$7.1219437.1%72 W · 122 L-12.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.