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NHL · resolved market

Senators vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Senatorsof Senators, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,122
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,122 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b5e…83f8backed Senators44c6,067$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,409.897758.4%45 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Senators42c6,066$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,538.411,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8d…d880backed Maple Leafs59c3,802$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2282254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d02…edbfbacked Maple Leafs59c3,460$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0571258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c3a…0a11backed Maple Leafs59c3,240$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9051275%9 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Maple Leafs8c2,110$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.521620.4%44 W · 172 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Senators41c1,539$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90837738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ca…9bf2backed Maple Leafs56c1,498$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.881428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-41.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9e9…0501backed Senators44c1,498$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.881471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+47%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5147…c45cbacked Maple Leafs59c1,177$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Maple Leafs59c1,109$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9124457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1187…cb53backed Senators40c1,023$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.6411533%38 W · 77 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Maple Leafs56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56022842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Maple Leafs58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x588c…6929backed Maple Leafs56c981.95$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae7…4602backed Maple Leafs54c862.38$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.821127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Maple Leafs52c805.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.2992848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Senators46c731.42$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.9732251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Senators42c704.94$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.491,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Senators45c700$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3857054.3%38 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Maple Leafs56c643.51$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.3797651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Senators43c596$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.721,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Maple Leafs56c535.7$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9266951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Senators41c479.56$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.0272444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Senators41c476.28$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.651,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Maple Leafs54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013457.5%77 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cf…8833backed Senators44c361.46$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba7c…a3cbbacked Senators44c341.3$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Senators43c324.8$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1321750.2%109 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Senators53c286.22$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.732331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5613…10c9backed Senators44c280$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Maple Leafs58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1454459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs40c249.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.263,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs56c236.78$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.686649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6800…bb6fbacked Maple Leafs57c220$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dcd…c913backed Senators43c220$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.41275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22a8…019ebacked Maple Leafs57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1420…6214backed Senators43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3068…7d29backed Maple Leafs56c196.43$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+41%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Maple Leafs54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015456.5%87 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Maple Leafs54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012859.4%76 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2105…64adbacked Maple Leafs54c185.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.924252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4187…d074backed Senators43c180$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda0b…5b2bbacked Maple Leafs57c180$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.61060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6787…321dbacked Senators45c177.78$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maple Leafs57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8f…3435backed Senators43c173.54$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.92785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+68%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Senators45c171$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0530549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6a…ea96backed Senators43c170$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.91154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c2…1b6bbacked Maple Leafs57c170$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.91250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Maple Leafs59c170$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.350857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8035…1d67backed Maple Leafs58c160$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb484…69bbbacked Senators42c160$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x008b…439bbacked Senators43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.52751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd5…1974backed Maple Leafs56c147$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa595…95a5backed Senators44c147$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Senators48c132.54$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1228842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…461dbacked Maple Leafs57c125.54$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.56650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1c…d6bebacked Maple Leafs57c123.74$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bd3…ef83backed Senators47c116.15$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.56650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b7…958dbacked Maple Leafs54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011558.3%67 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97bc…fda0backed Senators47c110.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+64.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7060…29a7backed Senators45c106.67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+72%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e93…0c49backed Senators47c100.91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Senators43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5735154.1%190 W · 161 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d4…6a08backed Senators42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b1…3a8abacked Senators42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6993…1558backed Maple Leafs58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x096f…5edfbacked Maple Leafs58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Maple Leafs56c99.59$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5284051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef8…c129backed Maple Leafs54c97.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf794…d782backed Maple Leafs54c97.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd4f…2ce5backed Maple Leafs56c94.55$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6780…82dfbacked Senators47c94.06$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b4…b953backed Senators42c90$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+55%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbebe…b4debacked Maple Leafs58c90$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4d…aea0backed Maple Leafs56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff3…88e9backed Senators44c90$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…1a4ebacked Maple Leafs56c89.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf46…3c69backed Maple Leafs54c88.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59be…c8f9backed Maple Leafs54c88.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fb…ca7abacked Maple Leafs57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbda9…3d16backed Senators47c86.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Maple Leafs59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Senators44c83.41$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7160549.3%298 W · 307 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfc…e235backed Senators46c80.89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc80…abffbacked Maple Leafs58c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.41457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…4eb9backed Senators42c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.41060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402d…2a64backed Maple Leafs56c80$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821a…d2bbbacked Senators44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf96c…087ebacked Senators42c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.41145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ab…d8ccbacked Maple Leafs58c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x860b…e6a3backed Senators44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb74…c87ebacked Maple Leafs56c80$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Senators42c77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6619150.8%97 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c5…6132backed Senators43c75.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+51.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x811a…d5eebacked Senators44c72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c4…d114backed Maple Leafs56c72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3240%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5220…4e88backed Maple Leafs56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403868.4%26 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.