College Football · resolved market
Spread: Washington State (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8564f22988abb3584d426c4eddde963006aa0e07585b8555a5728ee489120f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Stateof Washington State, Louisiana Tech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Louisiana Tech | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Washington State | 50c | 10,809$5,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,405.39 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Washington State | 50c | 3,221$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.5 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Louisiana Tech | 48c | 827$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.61 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Washington State | 55c | 730$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Washington State | 55c | 360.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.66 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Washington State | 51c | 234$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Washington State | 52c | 204.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Washington State | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Washington State | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Washington State | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Louisiana Tech | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Louisiana Tech | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Washington State | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed Washington State | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington State (-8.5)this page
- Louisiana Tech vs. Washington StateWashington State won
- Louisiana Tech vs. Washington State: O/U 43.5Under won
- Louisiana Tech vs. Washington State: O/U 44.5Under won
- Louisiana Tech vs. Washington State: O/U 45.5Under won
- Louisiana Tech vs. Washington State: O/U 46.5Under won
- O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Washington State (-10.5)Washington State won
- Spread: Washington State (-6.5)Washington State won
- Spread: Washington State (-7.5)Washington State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.