Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf86afca489c1faac1162b2d9c89dafbabab821e736fdece98e22b496ad7f47ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 7,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe386…4d91backed No | 2c | 930$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 5c | 611.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…5078backed No | 34c | 533.44$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 491.94$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 51c | 389.88$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.39 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 59c | 346.78$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 14c | 256$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.36 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 38c | 236.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 226.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 16c | 204.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.09 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 156.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 148.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed No | 41c | 136.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 76c | 120.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 10c | 118.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 94.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 72c | 94.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 47c | 90.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 22c | 89.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 27c | 84.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 28c | 68.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 79c | 58.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 57c | 58.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 29c | 55.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…c4a4backed Yes | 31c | 52.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 50.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 47.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 59c | 34.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 72c | 33.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 33.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 32.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 57c | 32.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 70c | 30.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…56b5backed No | 79c | 21.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 79cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 68c | 21.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 70c | 19.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 70c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 69c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 79c | 16.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 67c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 74c | 15.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.