Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf87288ee93b50f2fb5174fe599f1aa1b6aa98fea17ffe6f62ed244497515659f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,412 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 26c | 1,938$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.84 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 16c | 1,400$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 80c | 1,034$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.22 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 20c | 941.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.72 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 14c | 666.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 15c | 666.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 14c | 625$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 26c | 541.64$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 10c | 391.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 20c | 303.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 16c | 156.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 36c | 138.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 72c | 106.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 18c | 96.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Over | 20c | 71.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…c574backed Over | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Under | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Under | 80c | 17.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.