Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf88f1fa379a86d85495e975c43d4b4f41d5fb91548863d6b8dd5b35059d58eea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked BALU | 11c | 1,807$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.78 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked BALU | 15c | 1,782$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.05 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed BALU | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed BALU | 10c | 913.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed BALU | 16c | 412.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb41…111fbacked BALU | 12c | 327.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked BALU | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed BALU | 23c | 271.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BALU | 26c | 264.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed BALU | 24c | 253$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc591…faf7backed BALU | 13c | 164.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BALU | 10c | 132.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed BALU | 13c | 129.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…b3debacked BALU | 11c | 118.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed BALU | 12c | 116.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…7a58backed BALU | 12c | 113.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed VP.Prodigy | 77c | 84.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy | 73c | 73.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked BALU | 18c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed BALU | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed VP.Prodigy | 73c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?Yes won
- Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?No won
- Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)VP.Prodigy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.