Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e2214b469da324ffbe7deefb6358c56eead0232e20dfb568d7014863c8a803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked BALU | 71c | 2,605$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.61 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed BALU | 22c | 1,201$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.44 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 1,143$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.21 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked VP.Prodigy | 55c | 1,083$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.92 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked VP.Prodigy | 52c | 959.6$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.53 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 868.47$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.86 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed VP.Prodigy | 37c | 775.86$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.03 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 640.98$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.26 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed VP.Prodigy | 79c | 629.79$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…3393backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 575.72$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.88 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked BALU | 45c | 526.16$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.81 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked BALU | 44c | 507.63$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.66 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 488.49$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.09 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…6091backed BALU | 37c | 459.32$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed BALU | 61c | 411.69$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked BALU | 54c | 410.87$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BALU | 57c | 394.67$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.78 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BALU | 41c | 371.95$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked BALU | 54c | 364.22$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed BALU | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked BALU | 22c | 229.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…4fb8backed BALU | 19c | 227.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed BALU | 25c | 192.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked BALU | 52c | 187.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked BALU | 48c | 169.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked VP.Prodigy | 55c | 156.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked BALU | 60c | 152.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed BALU | 18c | 149.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…a9f7backed BALU | 38c | 140.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed BALU | 22c | 117.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed BALU | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1501backed BALU | 50c | 100.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked BALU | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked VP.Prodigy | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48bf…f7e2backed BALU | 19c | 96.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed VP.Prodigy | 24c | 95.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BALU | 34c | 79.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…8661backed VP.Prodigy | 79c | 75.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 159 | 40.9%65 W · 94 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed BALU | 42c | 74.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed BALU | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xce52…dbffbacked BALU | 47c | 57.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…19f8backed BALU | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked VP.Prodigy | 51c | 45.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked BALU | 47c | 44.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed BALU | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked VP.Prodigy | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked BALU | 55c | 38.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed BALU | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b7…3852backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 31.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed BALU | 43c | 27.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed BALU | 48c | 24.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…fbf1backed BALU | 74c | 23.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked BALU | 51c | 21.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed VP.Prodigy | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…49c7backed VP.Prodigy | 79c | 17.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 14.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?Yes won
- Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?No won
- Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)VP.Prodigy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.