Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b2360207ffdb371997d9fd6e2b88147e6c6a1dfb2604467a57aceaa1e5f158
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 4,506$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.6 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed BALU | 31c | 4,000$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed BALU | 35c | 1,659$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked BALU | 32c | 717.37$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.56 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked VP.Prodigy | 69c | 526.76$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed BALU | 31c | 480.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed BALU | 32c | 461.7$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…b865backed BALU | 32c | 437.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed BALU | 32c | 377.47$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…59dbbacked BALU | 32c | 358.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…2044backed VP.Prodigy | 70c | 358.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked BALU | 32c | 315.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed BALU | 32c | 245.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…afaebacked BALU | 32c | 185.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed BALU | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked BALU | 36c | 161.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed BALU | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed BALU | 36c | 99.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed BALU | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…efabbacked VP.Prodigy | 54c | 45.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed BALU | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b7…3852backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 26.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?Yes won
- Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.