Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8af1c1bd3fd14ba2d91dfffd7fd6ae59fdd03e3f5cd3ee6a55917906d1eda35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 21c | 13,414$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.72 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 3,360$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.37 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 45c | 1,550$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 58c | 1,094$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.38 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 75c | 1,093$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.26 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 55c | 996.49$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed No | 2c | 822.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 41c | 626.19$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.19 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 6c | 593.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 37c | 559.42$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 58c | 533.48$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 56c | 461$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.16 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 58c | 335.73$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 59c | 300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 43c | 288.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.72 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 44c | 276$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 14c | 273.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 57c | 270.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 55c | 208.1$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 43c | 197.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 43c | 186.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.38 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9d…2317backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 43c | 134.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…1a92backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…2f49backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 93.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Yes | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 42c | 77.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…789abacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb181…3d52backed Yes | 42c | 62.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 65c | 58.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Yes | 65c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed No | 57c | 44.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…9c55backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 57c | 18.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will Cagliari vs. Parma end in a draw?No won
- Will Parma win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.