Asian League · resolved market
Henan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8f1d78472020ba6a91966f2ffbad4e89e301eb082fefd120063e49d16a5d9c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 72c | 869.05$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.37 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 738.82$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.96 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 46c | 500$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 17c | 499.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.88 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 17c | 499.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.88 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 17c | 499.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.79 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 65c | 463.49$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.8 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 393.76$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.53 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 16c | 310.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.54 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 74c | 135.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 29c | 113.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…62cebacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 30c | 75.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 29c | 73.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 29c | 73.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 30c | 69.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Over | 43c | 36.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Henan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Henan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.