Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf927849c898edea1f32972cef8503b5aaf2c9e2d48b54e76e87720f6c740ee29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,335$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.97 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 543.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…d5bcbacked Yes | 26c | 364.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 296.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 245.69$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 177.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 176.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 11c | 160.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 148.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 143.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 117.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 12c | 104.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 98.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 90.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 87.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 81.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 17c | 67.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 66.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 57.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 57.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 50.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 71c | 49.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 34.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 77c | 32.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 72c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.