Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf80e1276a38a24789f323fdea01bd3ab96f1c6064c7eadf7b156591ac59426dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 524.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 513.85$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 429.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 411.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 15c | 287.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 242.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 26c | 221.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 179.16$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 31c | 165.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 159.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 25c | 150.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…0112backed Yes | 17c | 146.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 131.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 18c | 101.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 20c | 101.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 21c | 100.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 97.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 68c | 90.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 79.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 78.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 35c | 78.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 18c | 71.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 68.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 65.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 78c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 19c | 61.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 58.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 63c | 57.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 29c | 56.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 56.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 24c | 50.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 36c | 49.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 44.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 27c | 41.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 29c | 37.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 30c | 36.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 74c | 36.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 33.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 29.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 27.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 71c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1354…ee5ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 73c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 77c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 80c | 16.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…a744backed No | 78c | 16.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.