Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf96fca8572f1cd4df9bcad75776be01ad8303c1240aea1ffc29754199e2b43e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c3d…7011backed Aurora | 77c | 1,298$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 1,035$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.77 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…49b2backed Aurora | 78c | 866.35$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.3 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Rune Eaters | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Rune Eaters | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Aurora | 73c | 364.01$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Rune Eaters | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Rune Eaters | 28c | 215$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Aurora | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 72c | 73.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…50efbacked Rune Eaters | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Rune Eaters | 28c | 69.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…1dccbacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 61.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…c1c3backed Aurora | 66c | 58.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Rune Eaters | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters (BO3)Rune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.