Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d917e9e450907f930dff9ccb199e9f1e90d7c041e684d6336c22878401e2112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Aurora, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Aurora | 45c | 4,904$2,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,212.73 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Rune Eaters | 75c | 3,204$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Aurora | 2c | 3,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…a8b6backed Rune Eaters | 35c | 1,966$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rune Eaters | 54c | 886.84$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.4 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 693.73$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.18 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Rune Eaters | 34c | 688.66$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.22 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…49b2backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 675.72$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Aurora | 49c | 500$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aurora | 46c | 400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 65c | 340.97$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 275$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Aurora | 59c | 268.49$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Rune Eaters | 78c | 225.93$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Aurora | 50c | 218.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Aurora | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Aurora | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Rune Eaters | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Rune Eaters | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 48c | 88.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…a717backed Aurora | 30c | 86.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Aurora | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Aurora | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters (BO3)Rune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.