Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fc0f9b3d2377b43972e76a564466c22d639d830995aca5806ce630eb16ef73a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Aurora, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Rune Eaters | 40c | 8,206$3,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,932.18 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 57c | 5,116$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,905.34 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Aurora | 62c | 3,516$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.76 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Rune Eaters | 46c | 3,400$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…edc9backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 3,169$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Rune Eaters | 20c | 3,159$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.3 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Aurora | 2c | 3,016$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Aurora | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.94 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…a8b6backed Rune Eaters | 27c | 2,200$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 2,165$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.2 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 57c | 1,610$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.7 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Rune Eaters | 51c | 1,610$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Aurora | 59c | 1,579$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.45 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Aurora | 54c | 1,503$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.11 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked Rune Eaters | 55c | 1,491$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Aurora | 53c | 1,488$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.62 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Rune Eaters | 47c | 1,485$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Aurora | 2c | 1,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +100%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 16c | 1,290$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed Aurora | 63c | 1,112$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.91 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…49b2backed Aurora | 79c | 1,106$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.54 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora | 72c | 1,049$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.95 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora | 50c | 1,047$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.36 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Rune Eaters | 29c | 1,043$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.12 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 1,020$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Aurora | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 52c | 899.99$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.99 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Rune Eaters | 51c | 899.7$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.69 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Aurora | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Aurora | 10c | 650$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Aurora | 71c | 643.53$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.74 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora | 49c | 617.34$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Rune Eaters | 27c | 567.36$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.42 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 50c | 566.29$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.42 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec7a…a1f2backed Aurora | 72c | 557.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Rune Eaters | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.54 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Rune Eaters | 76c | 535$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 525$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Aurora | 73c | 507.47$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.19 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…7181backed Rune Eaters | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 26cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Rune Eaters | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Rune Eaters | 43c | 398$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.86 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Aurora | 58c | 366.02$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Aurora | 50c | 362.31$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 40c | 353.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aurora | 78c | 353$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.11 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Aurora | 67c | 347.94$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.48 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Aurora | 56c | 346.38$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Rune Eaters | 27c | 333.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Aurora | 51c | 317.24$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Rune Eaters | 32c | 310.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.13 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Aurora | 79c | 306.64$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked Aurora | 54c | 259.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Rune Eaters | 37c | 259.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.66 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Rune Eaters | 23c | 250$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Rune Eaters | 30c | 249.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.86 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Aurora | 52c | 239.86$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Rune Eaters | 33c | 230.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rune Eaters | 36c | 230.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…c11abacked Aurora | 77c | 202.73$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Rune Eaters | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Aurora | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Aurora | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 61c | 198.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b2…caa8backed Aurora | 62c | 150.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Rune Eaters | 9c | 150$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Aurora | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…f8c6backed Aurora | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…090cbacked Rune Eaters | 30c | 123$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Aurora | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…99abbacked Rune Eaters | 27c | 110.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…237abacked Rune Eaters | 38c | 106.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked Rune Eaters | 39c | 102.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Aurora | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed Rune Eaters | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 95.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Aurora | 75c | 86.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 49c | 83.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Rune Eaters | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed Rune Eaters | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Rune Eaters | 27c | 70.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Rune Eaters | 34c | 68.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…a717backed Aurora | 50c | 66.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked Rune Eaters | 25c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed Aurora | 64c | 61.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…1dccbacked Rune Eaters | 27c | 57.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed Aurora | 73c | 55.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Aurora | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Aurora | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Aurora | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Aurora | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3dc…ece8backed Aurora | 70c | 44.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Aurora | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…df77backed Aurora | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Aurora | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Aurora | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.