Tennis · resolved market
Geneva Open (Doubles): Melo/Molteni vs Fritz/Tien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf992cdd5c099ec8989cf191d241acb7be466d2b0bf53041995d0a62cba1a440d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritz/Tienof Melo/Molteni, Fritz/Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12e3…7982backed Melo/Molteni | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 22.7%22 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Melo/Molteni | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Fritz/Tien | 30c | 212.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Melo/Molteni | 56c | 185.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Melo/Molteni | 7c | 184.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 194 | 11.9%23 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fritz/Tien | 44c | 181.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Melo/Molteni | 51c | 107.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Fritz/Tien | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 303 | 39.9%121 W · 182 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Fritz/Tien | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Fritz/Tien | 72c | 70.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Melo/Molteni | 62c | 70.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Fritz/Tien | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 337 | 47.2%159 W · 178 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Melo/Molteni | 58c | 58.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Fritz/Tien | 42c | 35.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Melo/Molteni | 55c | 35.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Fritz/Tien | 59c | 33.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Fritz/Tien | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Melo/Molteni | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…1accbacked Melo/Molteni | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.