South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Independiente vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a61668d7306aaddb275fb1e893bbb7d9677fb20584c084a776d636cc7c2b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,342 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.67 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed No | 54c | 471.41$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…cdaabacked No | 57c | 329$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 304.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed Yes | 46c | 242.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…a07abacked Yes | 46c | 228.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…133ebacked No | 57c | 187$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f1…a2c4backed Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…d64cbacked Yes | 43c | 123$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f4…bb15backed Yes | 43c | 118$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e28…0ec4backed Yes | 43c | 113$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 53c | 68.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 50c | 61.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 69c | 54.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 57c | 53.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Yes | 47c | 42.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…7e01backed No | 57c | 29.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Yes | 74c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Independiente vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- CA Independiente vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-2.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.