Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9b5d12e5f95b3652f613dccc1358f00054d4235a1b87fbabcb8dbb81e917953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Bublik, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbcf…63bdbacked Bublik | 0c | 10,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Rinderknech | 63c | 2,827$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.75 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bublik | 37c | 2,545$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.69 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Rinderknech | 62c | 1,725$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.65 | 187 | 47.6%89 W · 98 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…a237backed Rinderknech | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…3a0abacked Bublik | 39c | 1,300$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.99 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Bublik | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Rinderknech | 63c | 903.43$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.91 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Bublik | 38c | 663.13$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Bublik | 38c | 576.6$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.11 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Bublik | 36c | 568$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Bublik | 38c | 449$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…a518backed Rinderknech | 59c | 317.9$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Rinderknech | 62c | 303.73$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Bublik | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Rinderknech | 62c | 226.85$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…cb4fbacked Bublik | 38c | 221$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Bublik | 38c | 214.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Bublik | 39c | 180.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Bublik | 37c | 158.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Rinderknech | 64c | 148.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Bublik | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Rinderknech | 62c | 115.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Rinderknech | 62c | 111.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Rinderknech | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Bublik | 41c | 50.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Bublik | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Bublik | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rinderknech | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)this page
- Arthur Rinderknech vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander BublikAlexander Bublik won
- Rinderknech vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Rinderknech vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs BublikRinderknech won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.