Toledo vs. Bowling

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9d2bcf4e214f257505cc94dfdef5b8c50f5e2bd3b0b9e3c0bbc1890d17fb8e9

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bowlingof Toledo, Bowling
Resolved: Oct 11, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,157 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5139…a8dbbacked Toledo	78c	9,213$7,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,179.01	818	47.9%392 W · 426 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Bowling	22c	8,427$1,854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,572.84	116	53.4%62 W · 54 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Toledo	77c	7,455$5,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,740.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bowling	23c	7,000$1,610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,390	381	42.5%162 W · 219 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9d…dc00backed Toledo	76c	3,000$2,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,280	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a0…6b5abacked Bowling	24c	3,000$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,280	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.26per pick	52cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Toledo	15c	2,430$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365	200	39.5%79 W · 121 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Toledo	76c	2,257$1,713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,713.01	492	53.5%263 W · 229 L	+7.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Bowling	24c	2,083$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,583.33	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Bowling	25c	2,003$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,503.14	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Toledo	77c	1,956$1,506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,506.39	503	58.1%292 W · 211 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked Bowling	23c	1,915$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,474.39	471	31.4%148 W · 323 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Toledo	75c	1,251$939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$938.59	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Bowling	24c	838.24$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$638.24	224	37.5%84 W · 140 L	-17.3wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bowling	56c	809.13$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.97	553	50.3%278 W · 275 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Toledo	76c	752$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.52	173	61.3%106 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Bowling	5c	430.99$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	224	4%9 W · 215 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Toledo	76c	420.16$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.32	107	42.1%45 W · 62 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Bowling	27c	370.37$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.37	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Toledo	75c	262.63$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.97	1,090	41.7%455 W · 635 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bowling	22c	229.99$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.39	568	44.5%253 W · 315 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bowling	77c	217.49$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.49	628	43.6%274 W · 354 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Toledo	78c	217.17$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.39	756	51.9%392 W · 364 L	+20.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff0…73fdbacked Bowling	25c	200.26$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.26	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bowling	23c	200$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154	184	16.8%31 W · 153 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacdf…0ec4backed Toledo	76c	195.83$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.83	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-3.6wins	-0.51per pick	65cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa3ef…2891backed Toledo	78c	192.57$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Bowling	54c	175$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.87	305	48.9%149 W · 156 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19c3…694abacked Bowling	24c	175$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+49%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5340…5e2bbacked Bowling	7c	162.34$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.49	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-5.0wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bowling	12c	154$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.04	632	43.7%276 W · 356 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+138.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x280a…d91ebacked Bowling	79c	130.56$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.16	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked Bowling	23c	117.12$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.18	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	+6.6wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c9…d3b7backed Bowling	80c	114.38$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.88	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Toledo	57c	100.01$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.51	276	48.9%135 W · 141 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Bowling	23c	100$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77	176	34.7%61 W · 115 L	+11.6wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x133b…faa8backed Bowling	23c	100$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Bowling	22c	100$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	280	32.9%92 W · 188 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Toledo	78c	93.59$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Bowling	45c	89.42$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.42	168	39.9%67 W · 101 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Toledo	77c	85.9$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.14	68	69.1%47 W · 21 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Bowling	25c	80$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-5.8wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaef5…a454backed Bowling	23c	65.22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.22	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+7.2wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd8c…672ebacked Bowling	22c	58.56$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.68	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed89…647bbacked Bowling	24c	45.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.83	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Toledo	78c	40.09$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.27	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bowling	45c	29$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.08	571	44.7%255 W · 316 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Toledo	76c	26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Toledo	78c	25.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	71cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Toledo	78c	25.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	110	70%77 W · 33 L	+8.3wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Bowling	71c	21.24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	267	50.9%136 W · 131 L	+21.7wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Toledo	76c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Toledo vs. Bowling

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event