South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa00ef5c5235a6c2894bcf32d8cff2cb6f13eee8d918bc62ae5e2d9fd5e082b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 3,697$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.06 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 46c | 943.98$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.38 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 886.37$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.76 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 773.52$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.27 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 52c | 560.31$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a57ebacked Over | 31c | 416.5$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 213.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 52c | 207.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 204.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 69c | 196.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 37c | 195.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 31c | 155.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 32c | 124.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 49c | 113.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 60c | 82.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 60c | 76.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 32c | 74.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 72.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 71.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 60c | 71.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 60c | 71.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 60c | 68.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 60c | 68.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 61c | 61.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 60c | 60.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 60c | 56.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 60c | 55.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 60c | 55.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 60c | 53.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 60c | 53.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 60c | 52.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Under | 76c | 42.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Over | 41c | 40.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Over | 59c | 39.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 34.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 53c | 31.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…f064backed Over | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Under | 50c | 27.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 69c | 23.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…342abacked Under | 68c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 72c | 15.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.