TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
North Carolina State Wolfpackof North Carolina State Wolfpack, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,552 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b9e…0262backed Wake Forest Demon Deacons54c2,800$1,512 inLost-$1,5121127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack46c2,000$920 inWon+$1,08074152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3d…55b3backed Wake Forest Demon Deacons50c1,982$991 inLost-$99120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed North Carolina State Wolfpack50c1,382$691 inWon+$6911,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Wake Forest Demon Deacons59c500$295 inLost-$2956443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack46c500$230 inWon+$2701,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack50c369$185 inWon+$184.512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa841…5167backed North Carolina State Wolfpack46c300$138 inWon+$162250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack41c258.32$106 inWon+$152.415,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack50c226$113 inWon+$1134,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Wake Forest Demon Deacons65c130$84 inLost-$84.116746.1%77 W · 90 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked North Carolina State Wolfpack41c102.68$42 inWon+$60.581,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed North Carolina State Wolfpack35c100$35 inWon+$65.515442.9%66 W · 88 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed North Carolina State Wolfpack41c89$36 inWon+$52.515,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed North Carolina State Wolfpack40c60$24 inWon+$36.373549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.