Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Korda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa92f18c89e34fc17e9d7af9cb32ecb0a11f20e9cfed210fc9ab4fb503b15f3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kordaof Giron, Korda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1642…5988backed Korda | 51c | 2,162$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.63 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Giron | 48c | 1,010$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.63 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Giron | 34c | 848.45$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.47 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Giron | 38c | 747.6$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.05 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Korda | 55c | 699.11$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.6 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Giron | 57c | 552.71$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.48 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Korda | 49c | 531.34$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.34 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Giron | 46c | 449.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.09 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Korda | 65c | 409.41$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Korda | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Korda | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Giron | 38c | 270.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Giron | 38c | 205$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Korda | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Korda | 58c | 172.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Korda | 59c | 114.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Giron | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Korda | 50c | 69.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Korda | 60c | 62.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Giron | 37c | 53.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Giron | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Korda | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.