Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lithuania vs. Netherlands end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa99dc279314ada7f6e57b3d5ec6be1766f47e70b61d652f46ee14b9dfea64b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 21,049$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.32 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 7c | 6,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 6c | 2,930$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,619$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,922$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 5c | 1,209$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 6c | 390$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3a…544fbacked Yes | 8c | 141.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…fdb2backed No | 76c | 26.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lithuania vs. Netherlands end in a draw?this page
- Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-07?No won
- Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.