NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfab0a243fcecd5c4307358670184cd7bc48d141f32ea77278bfcd9cd12ce68ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 2,980$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.91 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 1,542$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.8 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,278$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 52c | 203.17$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 52c | 194$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 66.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…eb30backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 35c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Under | 51c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…7861backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…36c5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Islanders vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.