Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfad8a8a3dab08f9c67bb72ae7c333835f0982abac17eb83caaa7af189bbc038b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 2c | 4,557$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 771.86$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 557.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 6c | 524.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 500.08$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 7c | 420.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes | 8c | 372.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 171.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 7c | 165.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 141.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 140.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 78c | 114.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 98.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 95.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 21c | 93.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 77c | 87.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 74.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 14c | 69.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 17c | 67.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 66.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 57.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 22c | 51.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 47.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 43.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 39.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 38.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 80c | 29.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 78c | 22.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 22.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 76c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 78c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 76c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…f13abacked No | 75c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.