Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b80c7e688e973ddf017a254ebee05572a921d14f89a52bd62a03df79155e2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 69c | 639.57$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.49 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 19c | 469.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 467.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 458.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 63c | 409.4$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.26 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 305.18$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 36c | 299.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 37c | 299.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 18c | 298.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 72c | 231.6$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 225.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 57c | 220.54$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…2a41backed Yes | 35c | 170.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 36c | 148.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 35c | 141.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 140.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 117.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 106.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 100.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 80c | 97.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 84.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 84.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 59c | 82.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 60c | 81.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 77.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 57c | 72.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 36c | 72.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 75c | 71.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 70.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 71c | 69.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 26c | 68.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed Yes | 58c | 66.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…8ae2backed Yes | 40c | 64.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 45c | 62.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 62.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 60.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 59.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 57.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 56.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed No | 53c | 55.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 78c | 51.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 23c | 50.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 40c | 49.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db0…4a9ebacked Yes | 50c | 48.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 37c | 46.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 45c | 43.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 79c | 43.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 41.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…ef9bbacked Yes | 36c | 40.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked No | 53c | 39.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 45c | 38.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 56c | 37.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 40c | 36.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…24fcbacked Yes | 54c | 35.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…57eabacked Yes | 48c | 32.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 58c | 31.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 39c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 49c | 27.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 58c | 27.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 54c | 26.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 51c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 75c | 25.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 57c | 25.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 70c | 25.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 66c | 23.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 62c | 21.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 55c | 21.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…b82cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 72c | 14.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.