TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91d9…141dbacked No69c639.57$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.491,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes19c469.91$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.218339.8%33 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c467.78$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.998,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c458.14$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.526,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked No63c409.4$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.268946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No63c305.18$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.891,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7c…f555backed Yes36c299.74$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.24526.7%12 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes37c299.56$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9423823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes18c298.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No72c231.6$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9232157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes29c225.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.912,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No57c220.54$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5419259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…2dafbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6958…2a41backed Yes35c170.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Yes36c148.28$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.522020%4 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes35c141.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.56418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c140.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.961,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes33c130$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.61,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c117.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.237,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c106.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No72c100.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8829558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No80c97.34$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7121641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c84.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.822,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes31c84.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Yes59c82.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.778861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa654…58c9backed Yes60c81.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.775343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c77.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.323,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No57c72.75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4814961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74b7…14e9backed Yes36c72.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.356645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8596…34c2backed No75c71.77$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.942466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c70.65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No71c69.09$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2233450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes26c68.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.443132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe747…a984backed Yes58c66.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.623060%18 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10e8…8ae2backed Yes40c64.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes45c62.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes29c62.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.871,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes29c60.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.594,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c59.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes19c57.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0586226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No78c56.3$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.161,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed No53c55.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.87757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No78c51.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes23c50.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced1…f456backed Yes40c49.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.842025%5 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2db0…4a9ebacked Yes50c48.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes37c46.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.467841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes36c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.849445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes45c43.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.962,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No79c43.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2931542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes28c41.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.551,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3860…ef9bbacked Yes36c40.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked No53c39.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.818667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No45c38.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.915655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes56c37.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.893560%21 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes40c36.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6312337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc585…c51ebacked Yes54c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb460…24fcbacked Yes54c35.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick66cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb5…57eabacked Yes48c32.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes58c31.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.165549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.083,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes58c30.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5249547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f44…c470backed Yes39c29.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.557546.7%35 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed Yes38c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.895147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…19f4backed No49c27.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.234946.9%23 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked Yes58c27.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.924845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes54c26.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6355942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes51c25.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1721235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d52…c5aabacked No75c25.89$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4710359.2%61 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No57c25.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0451631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No70c25.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4515954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No66c23.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0124149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes51c23.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.051,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No62c21.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.297546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes55c21.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6711161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79e7…b82cbacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No72c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee3…c539backed No72c14.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.961471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.