Earnings · resolved market
Will Uber say "Expansion" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfadc4180023f9ac96a5252f4f6e149eea8b08212668bd814a846c31e348e113c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf416…522dbacked No | 29c | 13,750$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…fd34backed Yes | 71c | 4,530$3,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…32c0backed Yes | 71c | 4,200$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f9b5backed Yes | 71c | 3,090$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…2830backed Yes | 71c | 1,930$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 39c | 420$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 73c | 376.49$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 63c | 255.08$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 20c | 220.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1158…03f7backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked No | 37c | 29.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Uber say "Expansion" during earnings call?this page
- Will Uber say "Autonomous" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Uber say "Delivery" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Uber say "Driver Incentives" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Freight" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Innovation" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Uber say "Lucid" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Lyft" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Market Share" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Regulator / Regulation" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Safety" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Taylor Swift" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Uber Explore" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Waymo" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.