Earnings · resolved market
Will Uber say "Freight" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc803a5df4a765b3684538064cd5b5bbe9cf4c8ed6a7ec24f9b313e853da17b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d94…3617backed Yes | 39c | 450.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…eac0backed No | 63c | 392$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 50c | 352$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 41cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 65c | 330$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 34c | 305$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed No | 73c | 129.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 66c | 101$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…3040backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 72.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…600cbacked Yes | 30c | 72.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…0d41backed No | 77c | 54.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…2c07backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Uber say "Freight" during earnings call?this page
- Will Uber say "Autonomous" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Uber say "Delivery" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Uber say "Driver Incentives" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Expansion" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Uber say "Innovation" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Uber say "Lucid" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Lyft" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Market Share" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Regulator / Regulation" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Safety" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Taylor Swift" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Uber Explore" during earnings call?No won
- Will Uber say "Waymo" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.