Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Taipei 2 Men: Kosuke Ogura vs Tomohiro Masabayashi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb15dc6eb54f1352b0413ba848f9826b44d82d38eec1823cb7f9d08e1a5a9967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kosuke Oguraof Kosuke Ogura, Tomohiro Masabayashi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 12c | 4,241$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.26 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Kosuke Ogura | 66c | 757.57$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 226 | 62.8%142 W · 84 L | +15.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 22c | 694.78$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kosuke Ogura | 68c | 606.81$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.17 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 10c | 399.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 20c | 308.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 24c | 303.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 274 | 48.5%133 W · 141 L | +24.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 12c | 293.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 46c | 195.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kosuke Ogura | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kosuke Ogura | 66c | 173.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…999abacked Kosuke Ogura | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…4b0dbacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Kosuke Ogura | 58c | 149.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed Kosuke Ogura | 66c | 111.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Kosuke Ogura | 74c | 83.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Kosuke Ogura | 78c | 67.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 22c | 59.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 21c | 57.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 32c | 55.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Kosuke Ogura | 73c | 53.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Kosuke Ogura | 47c | 50.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Kosuke Ogura | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kosuke Ogura | 46c | 36.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…af6bbacked Kosuke Ogura | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…6ae3backed Kosuke Ogura | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Kosuke Ogura | 77c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.