World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb16c4750708d537754500132a8ff16e8cb7c3ee14ade6a749c4057cb1a04699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 45c | 1,458$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 434.02$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 283.64$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 52c | 143.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 40c | 126.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 107$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 36c | 99.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 90.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 40c | 73.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 53.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 52c | 51.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 47.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 26c | 42.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 35.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…0609backed No | 59c | 29.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 63c | 25.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 43c | 23.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…98bfbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 79c | 18.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 29?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 29?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 29?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.