South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-10-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb44c609a4922fa8c5483d9723865e250757d31e99ac0a6a9b900b29793d2436
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 34c | 6,564$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,342.19 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 5,759$2,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,452.8 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 4,732$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.69 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 1,066$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.41 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 67c | 1,028$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.91 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 70c | 814.29$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 67c | 785.96$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.14 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…c8acbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d7…5af0backed Yes | 48c | 413.75$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed No | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 40c | 180$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Yes | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…06cbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…2d33backed Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 66c | 27.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3c…b62abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-10-15?this page
- Will Fortaleza EC vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?No won
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-10-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.