NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb5a816b39b8bcc90e43d3f11bf303f3ae2454f07c2792442684de92a942f68b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.99 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 60c | 1,163$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.43 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 60c | 650$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 60c | 527$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 60c | 369$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 38c | 295.32$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 38c | 286.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Over | 60c | 263.29$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 62c | 229.19$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 60c | 141.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…c672backed Over | 62c | 130.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Over | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 38c | 116.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 62c | 97.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe181…066fbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Over | 62c | 48.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Over | 62c | 48.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…78f9backed Over | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Under | 41c | 43.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Over | 62c | 43.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…74b3backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…2022backed Over | 65c | 23.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Sabres vs. LightningSabres won
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.