NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d47896d0c6aeeb36eb91b6a281d9b98d13097502c4ff568d3dd9e65e31d5bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $846,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $845,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $846,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 50c | 365,000$182,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182,709.11 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 50c | 344,621$172,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172,310.39 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 50c | 200,010$100,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,004.9 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under | 50c | 200,000$100,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,000 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 195,351$97,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97,675.44 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 121,279$60,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,639.46 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 50c | 70,000$34,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,000.72 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…e800backed Under | 53c | 18,873$10,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,002.55 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 50c | 10,003$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,001.69 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Under | 51c | 8,949$4,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,564.19 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Under | 51c | 6,705$3,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,419.3 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Under | 50c | 6,455$3,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.46 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 170 | 57.1%97 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 4,985$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.66 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 4,666$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 4,497$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.35 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 52c | 3,844$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Under | 51c | 3,410$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Under | 50c | 3,333$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.5 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 2,074$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.33 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 51c | 1,784$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 1,421$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.23 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 50c | 1,420$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,404$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.87 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 1,288$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 50c | 1,160$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.16 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…92e5backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 913.84$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.07 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 53c | 831$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.43 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Over | 51c | 798.83$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 49c | 719$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.69 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 326 | 48.2%157 W · 169 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 599$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under | 50c | 520$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 174 | 58%101 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Under | 50c | 433.46$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 331 | 54.1%179 W · 152 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf498…3d66backed Under | 50c | 429.77$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 321 | 55.5%178 W · 143 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 26c | 410.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9860backed Under | 50c | 403.92$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 23c | 305.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 51c | 296.05$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over | 51c | 246.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 33c | 242.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Under | 50c | 237.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Under | 50c | 235.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…815bbacked Under | 50c | 227.64$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…09eebacked Under | 50c | 224.43$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 243 | 52.3%127 W · 116 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba69…b2debacked Under | 53c | 223.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Under | 50c | 223.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeef…5667backed Under | 49c | 221.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…691bbacked Under | 49c | 212.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Under | 50c | 208.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 481 | 57.2%275 W · 206 L | +21.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Under | 50c | 200.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed Under | 50c | 199.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…ae72backed Under | 50c | 199.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…2942backed Under | 50c | 193$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Over | 50c | 183.53$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 50c | 176.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…3896backed Under | 53c | 170.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…57e6backed Under | 50c | 162.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…8de2backed Over | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 45c | 151.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 51c | 133.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Under | 51c | 110.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…c029backed Under | 50c | 105.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 50.2%143 W · 142 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked Under | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Over | 50c | 99.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Under | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 49c | 78.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…222bbacked Under | 50c | 73.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Under | 50c | 49.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 74c | 42.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…f560backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…fb6cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc6…31d3backed Under | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…75fabacked Under | 50c | 38.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…d503backed Under | 50c | 38.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. LightningSabres won
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.