Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc2e37987613aa6202763e622fbb489bb7c87352380ef800e5a64cbf7ec5234e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 786.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 69c | 299.98$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 244.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 184.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 33c | 166.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 112.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 108.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 75c | 102.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 89.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 87.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 82.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 66.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 65.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 61.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 60.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…d266backed Yes | 32c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 24c | 56.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 27c | 50.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 49.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 45.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 27c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 41.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 33c | 40.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 39.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc890…00e9backed Yes | 37c | 37.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 36c | 28.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 23.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 69c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…c24fbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.