Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc43fe01f4dfbda8af4f2b2cad9471e3d4217bea04fb9feaa2dc0cd0ff2c80dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 2c | 558.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 364.42$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 353.8$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 345.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 14c | 280.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 60c | 243.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 41c | 162$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 36c | 161.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 63c | 159.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 153.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 8c | 149$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 8c | 119.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 41c | 87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes | 37c | 82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 77.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 39c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 39c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 46c | 45.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 43.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 63c | 18.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 80c | 13.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.