Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7c7de6770237898c43414087842c72ac926ad39738c12c221e062348aa7573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Auburn Tigers | 52c | 12,075$6,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,279 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,640 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Auburn Tigers | 51c | 217.31$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Auburn Tigers | 53c | 194$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 179.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 124$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…3851backed Auburn Tigers | 49c | 50.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 42.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)this page
- Auburn Tigers vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Auburn Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.