Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3da309650db06443c34c018ccbcef1802442a696a1a32ace0339e3e2c52784c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Auburn Tigers | 48c | 10,124$4,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,909.11 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 3,752$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.16 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 3,326$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.59 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 1,666$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.04 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Auburn Tigers | 55c | 1,661$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.67 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 1,544$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.88 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 711.11$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.11 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Auburn Tigers | 55c | 454$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 288.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.65 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Auburn Tigers | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 262 | 54.2%142 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Auburn Tigers | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Auburn Tigers | 57c | 174.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Auburn Tigers | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Auburn Tigers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Auburn Tigers | 48c | 46.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Auburn Tigers | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…5537backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 35.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 35.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…dc40backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 33.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 28.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Auburn Tigers | 47c | 27.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 26.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Auburn Tigers | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Auburn Tigers | 52c | 22.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)this page
- Auburn Tigers vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Auburn Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.