Tennis · resolved market
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7f8a97a253811f24711e628d3c6ab8c52f94a868b11d68d4a0022810501c30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuno Kitaharaof Natsumi Kawaguchi, Yuno Kitahara
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 14c | 848.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 48c | 451.07$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.55 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yuno Kitahara | 24c | 417.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.55 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 75c | 369$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.25 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Yuno Kitahara | 25c | 319.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.54 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 39c | 258.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yuno Kitahara | 50c | 217.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…cee9backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 78c | 190.21$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.73 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yuno Kitahara | 71c | 182.76$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 1,187 | 62.8%746 W · 441 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 16c | 126.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 55c | 123$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yuno Kitahara | 24c | 116.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yuno Kitahara | 52c | 94.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc49…d0ffbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 50c | 66.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,158 | 41.4%479 W · 679 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 60c | 46.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Yuno Kitahara | 71c | 40.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Yuno Kitahara | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e8…c85fbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 76c | 25.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Yuno Kitahara | 68c | 25.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,120 | 56.5%633 W · 487 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yuno Kitahara | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yuno Kitahara | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…dfcfbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 75c | 24.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 258 | 58.1%150 W · 108 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Yuno Kitahara | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 61c | 20.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 76c | 16.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 244 | 74.2%181 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.