Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Maneiro (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc8641ea2416935952209e5d72f9025e0e70e56a90446aa8113e8dfef635641b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalinskayaof Kalinskaya, Maneiro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Maneiro | 46c | 455.55$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Kalinskaya | 51c | 192.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Kalinskaya | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Maneiro | 46c | 123$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Maneiro | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 64.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Maneiro | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Kalinskaya | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Kalinskaya | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Kalinskaya | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Kalinskaya | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Kalinskaya | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Maneiro (+1.5)this page
- Kalinskaya vs. Maneiro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Maneiro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Maneiro: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Total Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jessica Bouzas ManeiroKalinskaya won
- Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs ManeiroKalinskaya won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.