MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc8766e9aba3b09df08f67ce9588024496a713020240948060189d288af68f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 8,583$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,988.38 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 5,622$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.95 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 53c | 5,069$2,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.31 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 4,971$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.01 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 54c | 1,265$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.98 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 1,199$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.6 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 54c | 946.59$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.43 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 54c | 919.13$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.8 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 66c | 661.61$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.95 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…370dbacked Over | 69c | 646.45$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 54c | 605$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.3 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 54c | 553.26$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.5 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 58c | 516.66$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 396.68$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.19 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 31c | 256$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 54c | 247.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 54c | 207$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 54c | 163.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 92.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…b49abacked Over | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under | 52c | 46.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 199 | 60.3%120 W · 79 L | +21.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 53c | 43.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 30c | 39.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 70c | 36.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 32.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 28.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 54c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 15.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.