Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham: Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc892b9b112e6caf7fd46dd4c7ca1dfdf0fcf65bf9ecacd704a6193689f0fb0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof Execration, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Execration | 1c | 2,755$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +230%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Execration | 31c | 1,087$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.33 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…b5a5backed Execration | 11c | 900.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked REKONIX | 68c | 375.18$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed REKONIX | 79c | 273.52$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Execration | 13c | 243.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked REKONIX | 36c | 189.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Execration | 33c | 154.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1768…e91fbacked Execration | 78c | 153.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…4cddbacked REKONIX | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed Execration | 51c | 130.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed REKONIX | 54c | 125.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Execration | 29c | 122.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Execration | 24c | 113.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Execration | 40c | 100.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c8…0551backed Execration | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…7ee9backed REKONIX | 70c | 83.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Execration | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed REKONIX | 35c | 80.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e4…b4d2backed Execration | 59c | 75.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed REKONIX | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb50f…c837backed REKONIX | 64c | 69.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked REKONIX | 80c | 68.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Execration | 20c | 55.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed REKONIX | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0f…c8f5backed Execration | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Execration | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…d53cbacked REKONIX | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed REKONIX | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…b7aebacked REKONIX | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2aa…8f55backed Execration | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…c32abacked Execration | 65c | 20.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…44c4backed REKONIX | 67c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Execration | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham: Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
- Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerREKONIX won
- Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 3 WinnerExecration won
- Series: Most kills?REKONIX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.