Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe222f597f93a29798f2695bd7a9f96fd614fdc6835d0d8d855f8af8bd0156935
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof Execration, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Execration | 28c | 1,794$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Execration | 40c | 841.21$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.29 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Execration | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed REKONIX | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Execration | 5c | 299.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…7ee9backed Execration | 14c | 260.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed REKONIX | 61c | 231.61$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…08f5backed Execration | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed REKONIX | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Execration | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked REKONIX | 50c | 199.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked REKONIX | 62c | 154.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Execration | 33c | 131.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Execration | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked REKONIX | 53c | 85.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Execration | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked REKONIX | 61c | 64.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8e…d13cbacked REKONIX | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed REKONIX | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313a…349ebacked REKONIX | 67c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham: Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsREKONIX won
- Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
- Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 3 WinnerExecration won
- Series: Most kills?REKONIX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.