NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc9a8412944f24b2592a70a228c034183a993ccdeb7594828f9a55bbebea0f7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 72c | 1,541$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.47 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 1,260$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.26 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…2f29backed Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 46c | 634.66$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.49 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 582.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.18 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 280.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 241$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 26c | 208$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…bdd8backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9093…188ebacked Over | 45c | 171.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 143.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 44c | 131.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 26c | 122.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23dc…7520backed Over | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 34c | 102.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 62.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…2294backed Under | 54c | 57.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 59c | 43.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…d35cbacked Over | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…d5d2backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…d3f2backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…75f2backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…ba92backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…49e9backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…858dbacked Over | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…b7cabacked Over | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…4496backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f06…9967backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc5…d7d4backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…a0ebbacked Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7e…e5bcbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…f5a5backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…40f3backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcf…d404backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5this page
- Devils vs. BruinsBruins won
- Devils vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Devils vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Devils vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.