Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc719fc0b6ccc6ed44e1318edda28e1e5cb9538087ffcb5073fd117a4dcbb8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paulof Hurkacz, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Hurkacz | 27c | 3,248$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.61 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Paul | 68c | 2,214$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.5 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Hurkacz | 32c | 1,727$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.61 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Paul | 73c | 1,236$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Paul | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Hurkacz | 31c | 924.97$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Paul | 70c | 848.27$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.48 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…5cc9backed Hurkacz | 31c | 805$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf7…ee71backed Hurkacz | 34c | 626.47$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed Paul | 69c | 540$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Hurkacz | 30c | 500.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Paul | 75c | 337.5$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…6041backed Paul | 69c | 320$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Paul | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19aa…02efbacked Hurkacz | 31c | 195$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Paul | 66c | 158$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…6ce4backed Paul | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3f…4a6ebacked Paul | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Paul | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hurkacz | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Paul | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Paul | 70c | 72.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Paul | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Paul | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Paul | 71c | 62.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Paul | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Hurkacz | 31c | 38.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…e56bbacked Hurkacz | 34c | 35.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Paul | 75c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.