Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcca0db541c3094bd9df3fc7b30e53f0d05b249f8bee330b6b615c2f03482522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Power Rangersof Power Rangers, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Hive | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Power Rangers | 59c | 300$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Hive | 42c | 141$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Hive | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Power Rangers | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…57d7backed Power Rangers | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked Power Rangers | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed Power Rangers | 58c | 76.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Hive | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Hive | 45c | 66.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Hive | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Hive | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Hive | 40c | 51.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Power Rangers | 62c | 48.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Hive | 46c | 47.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Hive | 38c | 43.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Power Rangers | 55c | 40.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Hive | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Hive | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Power Rangers | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Power Rangers | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Power Rangers | 55c | 22.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsPower Rangers won
- Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 WinnerPower Rangers won
- Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 WinnerPower Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.