Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9053a3fd64caa6e845f137e962aade38bfe0e262b5e86f64fbeb3481c58066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Power Rangersof Hive, Power Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Hive | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Power Rangers | 72c | 2,329$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.22 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Power Rangers | 78c | 2,196$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.71 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Power Rangers | 70c | 1,439$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.31 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hive | 12c | 1,096$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Power Rangers | 73c | 1,049$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.29 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Hive | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Hive | 32c | 865.7$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Hive | 24c | 399.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Power Rangers | 66c | 378.78$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Hive | 17c | 267.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Hive | 24c | 249.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Hive | 25c | 131.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Hive | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Hive | 25c | 118.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Power Rangers | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…c3b7backed Hive | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Power Rangers | 70c | 71.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Power Rangers | 77c | 68.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Hive | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Hive | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Power Rangers | 67c | 45.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Power Rangers | 74c | 37.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf388…5c83backed Power Rangers | 70c | 30.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Power Rangers | 76c | 28.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Power Rangers | 77c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Power Rangers | 77c | 24.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Power Rangers | 69c | 16.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 148 | 56.8%84 W · 64 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Power Rangers | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsPower Rangers won
- Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 WinnerPower Rangers won
- Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5)Power Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.