Fifa International · resolved market
Egypt vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd778aebe8c408f4310059dc4cb2f607251647854968cdb8d3c016b11c44dd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 6,608$4,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.02 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 6,072$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.07 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d23…6c83backed Over | 1c | 3,249$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Over | 45c | 2,300$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Under | 54c | 1,389$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 1,131$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.26 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 614.68$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.87 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 53c | 421.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 31c | 242.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 212.72$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Under | 57c | 175.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Under | 79c | 126.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 224 | 66.1%148 W · 76 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 115$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 31c | 68.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 25c | 62.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 55c | 27.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Under | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Egypt vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5this page
- Egypt vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Egypt vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5Under won
- Egypt vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5Under won
- Egypt vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.