NHL · resolved market
AHL: Henderson Silver Knights vs. Ontario Reign
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd90b6a6e54b7492cff5afdbc690261e54c4c8fd5848e2653f45232ba3b87d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ontario Reignof Henderson Silver Knights, Ontario Reign
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,221 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 48c | 8,291$3,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,964.98 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 5,332$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,559.28 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +95%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 734.09$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.04 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 390.94$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.74 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…553dbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 255.63$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 179.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 175$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 142.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 60c | 89.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 84.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ontario Reign | 40c | 77.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Ontario Reign | 55c | 72.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…db9dbacked Ontario Reign | 51c | 70.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 35.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 177 | 65.5%116 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 26.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…d3f4backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Ontario Reign | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.