Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcfc5b0ee404a87f3c69ffba8eb02a23d7d681e11d1f185da807008da1dfe1f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f1…2638backed No | 75c | 512$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 361.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +798.5%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 22c | 212.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 187.69$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 78.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 65.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…b7bbbacked No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-14?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.